Dubai's Off-Plan Dominance: 66,900 Sales in Five Months as Market Shifts

Dubai's residential real estate market secured 66,900 sales between January and May 2026, with off-plan purchases accounting for around 74% of transactions, according to Cavendish Maxwell's latest market analysis. The total value of transactions in the first five months of 2026 was more than AED196.2 billion ($53.42 billion), down from AED217.8 billion in the same period last year.

The five-month snapshot reveals a market undergoing structural realignment. Off-plan sales increased by 9.5 per cent during the quarter, while secondary market sales fell by 8.2 per cent. This divergence reflects the architectural mandate of Dubai's development pipeline — a steady stream of new launches competing for capital that might otherwise flow to completed inventory. JLL said the performance demonstrated the relative resilience of the off-plan segment despite broader market uncertainty.

The first quarter established the market's typology. New research from Cavendish Maxwell showed that 44,200 residential transactions were completed between January and March, up 4.6% from the same period last year. Sales value rose 21.5%, showing that buyers continued to commit larger sums to Dubai homes despite a slower start to the year. More than 32,300 off-plan units were sold for a combined Dh105.5 billion, nearly 35% higher than in the first quarter of 2025.

Yet momentum fractured as the year progressed. Around 9,500 transactions took place in May 2026, compared to 17,600 in May last year, according to the research, with the May 2026 figure 27% lower than April 2026. The decline was further compounded by the week-long Eid Al Adha break at the end of May, which led to an estimated 3,000 fewer sales. While off-plan sales remained relatively resilient during the first four months of 2026, May recorded a notable decline in both transaction volumes and values. The ready market has seen an even more pronounced slowdown, with year-on-year declines since March.

Ronan Arthur, Director and Head of Residential Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, characterised the shift as a transition toward selectivity. This latest data suggests a more selective market environment, with buyers taking a measured approach amid regional and global uncertainty. The compression in activity reflects not structural weakness but rather a recalibration — investors and end-users reassessing exposure amid geopolitical headwinds whilst maintaining confidence in Dubai's long-term absorption capacity.

The secondary market's contraction carries strategic weight for UHNW investors. Secondary average consideration reached about AED 3.2 million, above the off-plan average near AED 2 million. Pricing gaps show stronger ticket sizes in handed-over communities, while newer projects continue to offer a lower entry point for investors. This bifurcation — lower entry prices in primary market, higher per-unit values in completed stock — creates distinct investment typologies. Off-plan purchases suit capital deployment across payment plans; secondary acquisitions suit those seeking immediate income or occupancy.

Developers delivered 12,900 residential units in the first quarter, the highest quarterly total in three years and 23% above the same period last year. Yet about 22,900 units across 90 projects were launched in the first quarter, down 57% from a year earlier and the lowest quarterly total in more than two years. This compression in new launches — despite record handovers — signals developer caution. Around 77,500 units are projected for delivery this year, with 29,600 scheduled for the second quarter. Cavendish Maxwell expects actual handovers between April and June to be lower, likely ranging between 9,000 and 15,000 units.

The market's trajectory through mid-2026 reflects a precinct in transition. Off-plan dominance persists as a structural feature — not a cyclical anomaly — anchored by developer confidence, flexible payment structures, and the psychological appeal of new-build acquisition. Yet the May slowdown signals that even this resilient segment responds to sentiment shifts. For institutional investors, the mandate is clear: monitor absorption rates against the expanding supply pipeline, track the secondary market's price discovery phase, and recognise that Dubai's real estate cycle has entered a more measured phase — one where fundamentals matter more than momentum.