82% of UAE residents plan waterfront move as values surge 140% in five years

A YouGov survey commissioned by Shamal Holding has found that 82 per cent of UAE residents are considering moving to a seafront or marina-front home within the next two to three years, with 93 per cent willing to pay a premium for waterfront living and 99 per cent believing proximity to water enhances a property's long-term value. The survey covered 1,009 UAE residents.

The findings — published as part of The Future of Seafront Being white paper produced by White Paper Media Consulting for Shamal Holding — arrive as the emirate's waterfront segment posts some of the strongest appreciation in the residential market. According to the report, waterfront homes in Dubai commanded a 90 per cent premium over inland properties in 2021, a figure that rose to 128 per cent by the first quarter of 2026 as buyers competed for a finite supply of coastal homes, while prime waterfront properties in the emirate have appreciated by more than 140 per cent over the past five years, significantly outperforming the wider residential market.

The structural catalyst behind the premium expansion is a classic supply-demand imbalance. As developable seafront land becomes increasingly scarce, the number of premium waterfront homes under construction is expected to decline sharply from 4,261 units in 2026 to just 848 by 2031, according to data compiled in the study. Demand, meanwhile, continues to strengthen on the back of population growth, inflows of high-net-worth individuals and Dubai's growing reputation as a global hub for wealth and investment.

The survey data reveals that proximity to water now influences daily behaviour across multiple dimensions. 96 per cent of respondents said proximity to water influences daily decisions, including travel routines, exercise habits and stress management. 88 per cent believe living near the sea improves both mental and physical wellbeing. 91 per cent of UAE residents feel noticeably more relaxed near water, while one-third described the emotional impact as profound. Sunset walks, marina visits and seaside dining ranked among the most valued experiences associated with coastal living. Respondents consistently linked these activities to reduced stress, stronger community connections and improved quality of life.

The thesis that waterfront living has evolved from a location premium to a wellness mandate is reflected in shifting buyer priorities. The study indicated changing perceptions of luxury, with 48 per cent of respondents identifying meaningful, nature-connected living as the most important characteristic of a desirable home, ahead of design trends (40 per cent) and social prestige (33 per cent).

Transaction data from 2025 underscores the segment's resilience at the ultra-high end. A record 68 homes valued at more than $25 million changed hands in Dubai in 2025, with total transaction value in the luxury residential segment reaching $9.05 billion, up 27.7 per cent from 2024. Four of the city's five best-performing neighbourhoods during the fourth quarter of 2025 were waterfront communities, accounting for 79 transactions, while 55.6 per cent of all Dubai homes sold above $10 million during the period were located in seafront communities.

Shehzad Jamal, Partner for Strategy and Consultancy at Knight Frank Mena, said Dubai's prime waterfront market continues to command significant premiums, with prime seafront properties attracting an average premium of around 68 per cent. Increasingly, buyers are looking for complete lifestyle ecosystems rather than standalone residences. "UHNW buyers are no longer just buying a home by the water, they are buying into a lifestyle," he said. Buyers are increasingly prioritising privacy, direct beach access, wellness offerings and low-density developments over sheer scale.

Abdulla Binhabtoor, Chief Executive Officer of Shamal Holding, positioned the research as evidence of a broader shift in how residents conceptualise waterfront environments. "In Dubai, our relationship with the sea has always shaped our identity and ambition. We believe that Seafront Being is the evolution of seafront living, from simply residing by the water to experiencing the waterfront as an integrated part of daily life, work, leisure, wellbeing and belonging," he said. "As prime coastal land becomes increasingly scarce, our focus remains on creating places that enrich lives today and endure for generations to come."

Urban planning expert Dr. Khaula Alkaabi, Professor in the Geography and Urban Sustainability Department at UAE University, believes waterfront developments occupy a unique role in city-building strategies. "Waterfronts often function as high-value real estate and tourism anchors," she said. However, she noted that successful waterfront districts depend on far more than premium homes. "Cohesion depends on public shoreline access, integrated transport links, and active ground-floor uses," she said, arguing that accessibility and community integration are essential components of sustainable urban growth.

Architect Stephen Denyer, Director at global design practice U+A, argues that successful developments should create meaningful engagement with the coast rather than simply offer views. "People inherently choose coastal and seafront locations in order to interact with the water," he said. "The seafront provides a natural community resource that can be utilised," he added, noting that waterfront communities should encourage interaction, recreation and a sense of belonging.

Landscape architect Duncan Denley, founder and managing director of Desert INK, believes the industry is steadily shifting from iconic developments toward more human-centred places. "Belonging, not buildings, defines successful seafront communities," he said. While waterfront views remain highly prized, Denley argues that daily interaction with the coast often matters more. "An early paddle or yoga session by the sea delivers far greater wellbeing than time in an air-conditioned gym," he said, highlighting the role that beaches, trails and waterfront amenities play in creating livable communities.

Dr. Georges Kachaamy, Director of the Centre for Research, Innovation and Design at the American University in Dubai, believes successful coastal design works in harmony with nature. "Architecture can be a mediator between the human body and the coastal environment," he said. Rather than competing with the sea, buildings should amplify the sensory experience of water, wind, light and open space to support wellbeing and emotional balance.

The findings form part of The Future of Seafront Being white paper published by Shamal Holding, which combines the survey results with expert analysis and aims to contribute to discussions on designing future communities and enhancing quality of life in line with the objectives of Dubai's long-term quality-of-life and urban development strategies.

For investors, the compression of future supply against sustained demand creates a narrowing window for entry. The 848-unit pipeline forecast for 2031 represents a sharp contraction from 2026 levels — a structural tightening that typically precedes sustained price appreciation in land-constrained typologies. The survey's 82 per cent figure, if even partially realised, would generate absorption velocity well above the declining supply trajectory, reinforcing the premium expansion observed between 2021 and Q1 2026.

The shift from location-driven to wellness-driven acquisition criteria also signals a maturation of buyer sophistication. When 48 per cent of respondents prioritise nature-connected living over design trends or social prestige, the waterfront segment transitions from a discretionary lifestyle choice to a structural component of residential demand. That transition, combined with finite coastal inventory and sovereign-backed infrastructure investment, positions the archetype as a defensive allocation within the broader Dubai residential mandate.